Monday, December 31, 2007

Evolution of MillionPips

MillionPips blogs is changing faces. MillionPips blog as you and I know is no longer! The next phase of my trading has me shifting to another blog with another name. The new blog is:

http://keelrisk.blogspot.com/

Soon you will be able to get there by the domain http://keelrisk.com/ . As of today, the last day of 2007 the new domain name is not pointing to my Blogger domain, however in a couple days it will.

The reason for the change is because it is time to turn my little trading operation into a business. As a result, I have named my business Keel Risk Group, LLC. This change will enable me to take some tax benefits as my trading progresses.

Trading Statistics

I finally got my account transactions automated so I can identify strengths and weaknesses. As many know Oanda does not have a very good reporting structure for you to see a summary of your trades. They do have a monthly summary report; however, you only have access to it after the month has occurred and even then you have to wait a week or two afterwords.

I created a program in c# that will take the .csv file from Oanda and load it into a Microsoft SQL Server Express 2005 database. From that point I have an asp.net/c# website that will extract all the transaction from the database and presents all the stats. Below you will see the results of all that work! I plan on adding many more stats including some graphical charts representing trends.

The December results will probably change by and extra couple bucks because I have some carry trades going and will need to add these values into the final results. However this is pretty close to where I sit right now.






















































































StatsNovember 2007December 2007 Cumulative
Profit/Loss (%):1.91%2.06%3.98%
Profit/Loss ($):$185.63200.01$385.64
Number of Trades:325082
Winning Trades:254065
Lossing Trades:61016
BreakEven Trades:101
% Winning Trades78.13%80.00%79.27%
Avg Winning Trade($):$27.02$15.60$19.99
Avg Losing Trade($):$84.49$45.81$60.31
Largest Gain($):$86.00$83.00$86.00
Largest Loss($):$228.97$196.73$228.97
Avg Trade Size:559630504043







Monday, December 3, 2007

November Review

I was hoping all my trading stats would be compiled by now as to give a full and complete monthly review. When I have more specifics about trades I will update this post. I plan on having this completed within the next week. I'm working on automating the record keeping piece so I can pull up full and complete statistics on my trading activities.

I officially started live trading on Sun., Nov, 11th, 2007. I was anxious to get started because I had been demo trading for what seemed forever. As a result, I was quick with the trigger finger and fired off a trade I should not have taken. It was the GBP/JPY pair. The Friday previous this pair dropped like a rock and when Sunday night came I tried to catch a falling knife. As a result, my first trade was a loss of around 2.4%. This all happened within the first 24 hours. Needless to say that got my blood pumping.

I made an additional mistake with not moving a profitable trade to break-even and then taking a loss. This is the one that really ticked my off. Although I'm trying not to get too worked up over the negative and for that matter the positive. It is a long road that I'm going down and I have made the decision that no matter what happens I'm going to fight like mad to make this a success. I'm going in with a Pit Bull attitude and will do what I need to do to be successful!

Back on track...monthly review. So with some negatives came some positives. One positive being I traded very very small. I don't have my stats yet but my guess is my average trade size was around 5000 -6000 lot size. As a comparison, a mini lot is 10k I was trading around 6k size. Another positive, is I always had a stop in place on my trades. And the biggest positive to this month is that I finished the month with more money than when I started! That is what I love about trading, it is so black and white. You look at the end of the month and you know if it was good or bad and this month was good. Could be better and will be in the future but you have to start somewhere.

My goal for this first month was to just get my feet wet and finish the month in the black. My starting balance this month was $9710.00. I finished +1.92% to the positive. This works out to about $186.68. The day before the end of the month I put on a trade on a new strategy that was questionable and I lost. If I did not have this one on the books that would have put me up another 1%, oh well. I guess one of the underlining themes on this month is I made a couple mistakes and I still came out to the plus side to almost 2%. I'm am VERY excited about the prospect of making some mistakes and know I can improve a lot which will hopefully pull that monthly average up to to 3, 4 or 5%.

My thinking now going into month 2 is this:

1) Keep focused and disciplined because I don't want the first month to be an anomaly.
2) Go to bed earlier and wake up around 5:00am to make trades/analyze. This will be well into the London session and I can hopefully better tell trends that are setting up.
3) I need to be less emotional about my trades and I think within time this will occur because I hope to have more confidence in each of my trading strategies. I know this month I did not sleep as much as I should have and I'm paying for it because I'm sick.

All for now...I'll probably be adding another post in the next week or so with the gory stats about this months' trading. I feel that analyzing these monthly stats in major detail will help me gain that extra edge.

Disciplined Trading,
MillionPips

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Live Trading

As of Sunday, Nov. 11th, 2007 I'm trading a live account. I can tell you it has been a rough week and a half since I started. My first trade went against me pretty hard within the first 24 hours and I ended up closing out the trade for a little over 2% loss.

After that first trade, I gained some traction in my trading and right now sit up over 1%. When time permits I will go into the details of my first month of live trading.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

October Summary (Demo)

I'm closing out the month one day early. I don't currently have any trades open and I do not plan on opening any before the start of next month. I've been working a lot of hours as of late and I'm tired so I planning on getting some rest. I didn't think I was going to be able to pull off a positive month; however, as you can see from the image below I was able to make a couple positive trades. This will probably be the last demo update as I'm going live starting sometime in November. I will update in the near future about my live trading.




Friday, October 26, 2007

Recommendation

I have started going to PFXGlobal website on a daily basis. They have some great instructional and daily videos detailing what is going on in the currency market. Check it out I'm guessing it will be worth your time.

http://www.pfxglobal.com

Live trading

I haven't made the final decision, but I'm probably going to start live trading within the next month. I realize I don't have the holy grail of trading strategies; however, I have a couple strategies that are showing promise. I figure if at least two of my strategies can perform well for the next month that I will be ready to move to real-money trading.

So at this point I'm going start getting my accounts in order. I will have broker accounts at Oanda and InterbankFx. Oanda will be my primary trading account where 75% of trades will be placed. To choose Oanda was a no-brainer in my opinion. I chose InterbankFx because they have the Metatrader software. I really like this platform and need it to implement my strategies. Besides I'm not trading with enough money to shell out $50-$100 a month for a trading platform. If I have any problems what so ever with InterbankFx I will switch to EFX Group. I have traded with Oanda and know the kind of operation they run so there will be no surprises.

Strategy Update

The first image below is a progress report from the beginning, starting in August. I'm sitting on 4.46% gain with limited drawdown. I've had two straight positive months. The third month, October, is going to be close. As seen in the next image down is the month to date. It is going to be tough to pull out a positive October but it can be done.

From Beginning


October Month to Date


Above is a picture in time of where my account sits as of 10/26/2007 for month to date. Not quite the month I had planned. I had high hopes of pulling out 3+%, however I don't think that is going to happen. I do have 2 trades currently on, of which one is profitable. Despite the limited results for this month, I am happy that I have followed my trading plan. That really has been key and the focus this month. In addition, as you can see I have 5 current strategies in demo mode with one more comming on any day. I will sit on these 6 strategies until they get promoted to 'live' trading or knock back down to be revised.

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Demo Status

I removed my live cumulative demo trading stats on the right margin. If you think about it, it was actually worthless. The reason being is because demo strategies should be evaluated individually in order to make a determination to move the strategy into 'real money' mode. I plan on keeping the demo monthly trading stats and I will update occasionally on each strategy within the blog.



In addition, I'm changing the name of my strategies. I currently have the PinHead1 and Carry1 strategies. My goal this week is to implement 2 more strategies. At this point, neither demo strategy has enough trades to make the decision to move anything into 'real-money' mode. Only time will tell when this will happen. I am getting anxious to trading live; however, I do not want to trade with real money until I'm ready with one or more profitable strategies.

Strategy 'PinHead1' (demo):




Strategy 'Carry1' (demo):